Cost-exchange economics
Why Pelagio Defense believes distributed maritime infrastructure could change response costs, and exactly which parts of that argument are sourced, assumed, or still unvalidated.
The thesis
Defensive responses can create a cost-exchange problem when relatively inexpensive unmanned systems are answered with long-range interceptors or aircraft sorties. The U.S. Department of Defense's 2024 counter-drone strategy lists “reducing the cost imbalance between unmanned systems and countermeasures” as an objective, and the department is pursuing lower-cost alternatives.[4] CRS notes that defenses with lower marginal cost could produce a favorable cost-exchange ratio for the defender.[8]
Pelagio Defense's thesis is that distributed sensing, pre-positioned autonomous infrastructure, and local response options may reduce the distance, energy, and response infrastructure required for certain maritime missions, and so lower the cost per successful defensive engagement. This is a thesis, not a validated field result. Pelagio Defense has no deployed hardware.
1 · Publicly reported cost data
Figures are reproduced as published. They measure different things and are not like-for-like: interceptor costs are budgeted hardware prices, while the drone figure is an unaudited public estimate. Pelagio Defense does not divide one by another.
| Item | Figure | What is priced | Type | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM-6 Block IA interceptor | $5.50 million | Budgeted unit cost per all-up round; excludes launcher, ship, and support costs | Unit cost | FY2027 request | U.S. Department of the Navy, Office of Budget (opens in a new tab) [6] |
| SM-6 Block IAU interceptor | $7.84 million | Budgeted unit cost per all-up round | Unit cost | FY2027 request | U.S. Department of the Navy, Office of Budget (opens in a new tab) [6] |
| SM-2 Block IIIC interceptor | $1.76 million | Contract unit cost for a small buy (17 rounds); hardware only | Unit cost | FY2025 contract | U.S. Department of the Navy, Office of Budget (opens in a new tab) [7] |
| ESSM Block 2 interceptor | $1.52 million | Contract unit cost per missile; hardware only | Unit cost | FY2027 request | U.S. Department of the Navy, Office of Budget (opens in a new tab) [6] |
| Iranian-designed one-way attack drone (e.g., Shahed-136 class) | $20,000–$50,000 | Public estimates cited by CRS; not an audited or DoD cost | Publicly reported range | 2022 | Congressional Research Service (opens in a new tab) [5] |
2 · Pelagio model assumptions
These are modelling choices, not measurements. No numeric value is assigned to them yet.
The deterministic simulator includes an economics view with illustrative, fictional parameters for software testing. Those parameters are not validated and are not used on this page. Open the simulator's economics view →
3 · Derived estimates
A cost per successful defensive engagement for Pelagio Defense infrastructure cannot be derived honestly until node unit cost, maintenance cost, endurance, and detection performance are measured. Until then, Pelagio Defense publishes no derived savings figure or cost ratio.
4 · Unvalidated hardware assumptions
Current evidence: readiness review · hardware package · roadmap
References
Each source was opened and checked on its accessed date. Primary government sources are preferred.
12 sources are tracked centrally for this site, including those used in the home-page “Why now” section.